Fundamental Strategy Dashboard

Turn economic releases into a testable strategy

This dashboard treats the economic calendar as a signal source. Choose the releases that matter — CPI, PCE, PPI, Non-Farm Payrolls, UK employment, or any custom combination — and set the polarity of each: does a higher-than-forecast print strengthen or weaken the currency? Each release is scored by comparing actual against forecast, and the summed score decides the direction of the trade.

Trades are then simulated on the pairs that the currency actually routes to, entered at the exact release instant rather than at a convenient candle boundary, with configurable take-profit, stop-loss and break-even rules and a shared-equity portfolio model so overlapping positions compete for the same capital, as they would in a real account.

What the results will and will not tell you

You get win rate, profit factor, drawdown, an equity curve and the full trade list, exactly as in the technical Strategy Lab. Read them with the limits in mind: intraday candle history is finite, so event backtests reach back roughly a year rather than a decade, and a handful of releases per year means small samples and wide error bars.

The honest conclusion from most naive news strategies is that costs eat the edge — the value here is in finding which releases genuinely reprice a currency and which are noise, not in discovering a mechanical money printer.

Frequently asked questions

Can you profitably trade forex on news releases?

Some releases reliably move price, but spreads widen and slippage spikes in the seconds around a print. Backtesting with realistic costs is the only way to tell whether a specific event, on a specific pair, has ever paid — and for many popular events the answer is no.

Which economic releases move currencies the most?

Interest rate decisions and central bank guidance first, then inflation data (CPI, PCE), employment data (Non-Farm Payrolls, UK claimant count) and GDP. Second-tier data usually only matters when it changes the expected policy path.

What does actual vs forecast mean?

Forecast is the consensus economist estimate priced in before the release; actual is the published number. The market reacts to the surprise — the gap between the two — far more than to the level itself.

How far back does the event backtest go?

It is limited by intraday price history rather than calendar history, which in practice means roughly a year of releases for entries timed to the exact publication moment.

How is this different from the Strategy Lab?

The Strategy Lab tests technical rules on price and indicators. This dashboard tests fundamental rules driven by scheduled economic data.

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FX Terminal provides free market research and analysis for informational purposes only. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Trading forex carries a high level of risk.